CarlisleFrost
Registered: 19.03.2009
Location: USA
Posts: 132
14.04.2019 15:03:09
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PRFL Cup 2019
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Just checked up on the groups for the Cup this year and I think I had a mini heart attack. Group 14 definitely can be described as the GROUP OF DEATH!
Ferdel, Rainer-Zufall70, Chris, FUTCHIVAI, Maverick and myself in it, along with Magne (Rookie champion from last year), Sir Jhary on a fine looking budget and GlennL (who's had a solid start to the year). With only 3 places to go through, I'm preparing for carnage!
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CarlisleFrost
Registered: 19.03.2009
Location: USA
Posts: 132
03.09.2019 01:23:20
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Round 10 of the Cup is over and done with, so we're down to the final round of the groups this weekend!
Looking back to Group 14's matches (and Group 13)...
- GlennL needed a win and a lot of results to go their way to get through. In round 10, they scored a solid win over high-performing Alan Partridge, though other results mean they'll go into round 11, unable to advance. An admirable performance from them in the group, and it also put a dent in Alan's hopes of qualifying. They remain third in their group, but things are now mightily close.
- I had a strong win against agracer to remain top of the group. That win guarantees qualification and a little charge of ERS in the match means I have 7 points to burn in the final round.
- Maverick was back to winning ways with a solid win against Arevaquete, jumping them back into the top 3. They did use 15 points of ERS, which they may regret, as they now face buying a new unit before the final round or just going without ERS in their last match.
- FUTCHIVAI's group-high score of 148 gave them a big win over Revolux, one of the strongest group 13 teams. It moves them to 4th and keeps them in with a chance of getting through (needing a slip-up from Maverick though). 6 points of ERS left in the tank for them, so they'll be putting pressure on.
- Chris's match against group 13 leader LorrieJen was a race to forget, with Verstappen's retirement pretty much killing their chances on lap 1. Big impact on both groups, as I think it guarantees LorrieJen top spot in their group, and sees Chris fall from 3rd to 5th. With a low points total, they need a miracle to survive. Shame, as they put up such a strong fight through the group so far!
- 2018 champion Rainer-Zufall70 lost to a good score from Scooperman. Even a win wouldn't have seen them go into round 11 with a chance to qualify due to scores in other matches. Crazy, as both of the finalists from 2018 are out at the group stage this year, showing just how tough this competition is. For Scooperman, it was a vital win to stay in contention. Any slip up from Alan Partridge and they'll hope to pounce!
- Ferdel put in a monster score to beat promotion-chasing Villiers2006, though Villiers is still in with a chance in group 13 (just needing a lot of good luck!). Barring a huge swing in points, Ferdel is through. That win and their higher total points means group 14 goes to the final race to decide the group winner! They need a new ERS unit, so the dilemma will be using it/charging it for future rounds. I don't know what I'd do in their shoes!
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Looking ahead to round 11, with a focus on the key matches remaining....
- Alan Partridge faces Sir Jhary, knowing a win will almost surely see them through as 3rd in group 13. They'll be hot favourite to win, but won't want to be too complacent, as surprises can and do happen!
- I face mlagadms, knowing a win will seal group 14. They had a strong win in round 10, so I'll be hoping to make my ERS and budget advantage count.
- Maverick comes into the final round against agracer in control of their own destiny. A win and they're through. New ERS, so like Ferdel, they'll be deciding whether to use it or charge for the future. Tough decision again.
- FUTCHIVAI needs a win against Arevaquete to stand a chance of advancing and has budget and ERS on their side. I struggle to see Maverick slipping up, but whether FUTCHIVAI qualifies or not, they've put in a great performance in a super-tough group.
- Chris's chances of survival aren't zero, but are slender, needing a win in their match against Revolux, losses for FUTCHIVAI and Maverick, and a swing in points. At the worst, it is a chance to end the group with a bang, in what should be an exciting clash.
- LorrieJen ends their group with a match against Rainer-Zufall70. With top spot secured, they'll simply look to end well to secure a high seeding for the knockouts. Not an easy match though, and I'd expect a real battle there.
- Ferdel faces Scooperman in a big match for both. A win for Ferdel gives them a chance of top spot, while Scooperman has to win to have a chance of qualifying from group 13. Almost impossible to pick a winner from this one!
- Villiers2006 faces Magne, needing a win and for both Alan Partridge and Scooperman to lose/draw. Big ask there, while Magne is a big obstacle too!
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And finally, for this update, a quick round-up of the other groups, as we're so close to done now...
- GROUP 1: Hiensi and GaKra Motors are both through. Hiensi's loss in round 10 means we'll go to the last round to decide the group winner (GaKra, that slip probably was a surprise and has given you a sniff at stealing first at the end!). spystocks sits in 3rd and is looking very strong. They'd have to lose AND suffer a big swing in points to be knocked out.
- GROUP 2: Tom Hewer's win in round 10 sees them qualify and they look good to take top spot. ropagilax and MCM sit 2nd and 3rd, with Heinz Prueller (first overall on the site but not in the top 3 here!!!) and Enzo VR still in contention.
- GROUP 3: Daijhi's 8th straight win secures group 3 for them. Maxwell and 900BHP-ers are 2nd and 3rd and should advance, given their huge points advantages over 4th place. This group is all but settled, with the main fight being Maxwell and 900BHP-ers fighting to take second.
- GROUP 4: roi1975 and Margie Bell were safe in the group coming into round 10 and wins for both means it'll go to the wire to decide who wins the group. roi's higher score last time saw them move into first for now, but just 12 points separate them. Alpha908's win saw them jump 2 places into 3rd. A win in the final round sees them through, while Nicolaas on Wheels, Dave Ardon and Kitto all could steal that spot.
- GROUP 5: imagedoctor's loss last round means we go into round 11 with Schumacher in hot pursuit. Schumacher has the easier looking matchup, so we could well see a last minute change of leaders in group 5! Both are safely through though, with 3rd place currently occupied by roger alford. LongbowX and FastSteve's wins last time out have kept the pressure on, and it'll be one of those three taking the final qualification spot.
- GROUP 6: Crazy group here, as NO ONE is safe yet. A loss for king_1905 in round 10 leaves them needing a miracle to get through, but there are 5 other racers in the fight. basseck, Keke and L-Master Esq hold the top three places (in that order), all with 6 wins and 3 losses. katalyst in 4th also is on 6 wins and 3 losses, with Hugo just one win behind. Down to the wire here, so it'll be joy for some and a painful loss for others!
- GROUP 7: JUSTIN BIEBER, jobber2022497 and dmvn04 are safely through in group 7 and any of them could take the group win. jobber's loss in round 10 sees them slip to second place, but a really hard match for JUSTIN could let one of the other two steal the group win.
- GROUP 8: Daijhi remains on a perfect record (9 wins, 0 losses) but amazingly isn't guaranteed first place yet, thanks to am201020 being just behind on 8 wins and 1 loss. Both are safely through and it goes to the last round to decide who'll win and who'll have to face a wildcard match. Margaret104 sits in third, despite a loss in round 10, after carlos reutemann failed to capitalise. Both are on 5 wins and 4 losses, so it'll be decided this weekend!
- GROUP 9: RockinFX lost in round 10, but defeats for AstonMartin and agentP mean they still sealed the group. ralf jumped both of those to go second, though all three and Anne Craig are on the same number of wins, meaning 2 will survive and 2 will be knocked out!
- GROUP 10: Katzevonswish's win last round sees them almost surely safe and looking good to win the group. Wins from jules_ht, rkhalili, HamrHedZ, Futchi AND Alan_T_Riley mean we have 5 people battling for the remaining 2 spots. jules and rkhalili occupy those spots now, but neither have super-easy final matches, so everything could change.
- GROUP 11: Paperboy and Constable sit first and second in group 11, with a surprise loss for Giacomo seeing them fall from second to third, and out of contention for the group win (unless there is a huge swing in total points). A win for Paperboy would see them take the group, given their big points advantage over Constable. defcon1racing in 4th is in with a chance to qualify still, but they'd need to win their final match and hope Giacomo slips up again.
- GROUP 12: voimanen is the only other driver with 9 wins out of 9 and they are guaranteed to win group 12. Superviper is safe in second, with TekMonstre in third, 1 win ahead of 4th placed andyFX, who could still qualify if they win and TekMonstre loses.
- GROUP 15: malcdal's loss on the weekend means their perfect win record is over. It also means second placed Cavallino Rampante is still in the hunt for first, as they are a win behind but with a higher points total. Both are guaranteed to qualify, with third held by Mark Felts. Matt Burrows's win on the weekend means they're a win behind in 4th, needing a slip up to have a chance of qualifying.
- GROUP 16: A loss for superdigger keeps the fight for first alive in group 16, with Allrace close behind. Both are through, with the final spot currently held by 777. Energie is a win behind in 4th and is still in with a shot.
And with that, bring on Monza!
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CarlisleFrost
Registered: 19.03.2009
Location: USA
Posts: 132
26.08.2019 11:17:27
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Aaaaand finally, groups 13-16!
GROUP 13:
13 is unlucky for some, but it hasn't been for LorrieJen and Revolux, who are the top 2 in this group. LorrieJen is on 7 win and 1 draw, with Revolux just behind on 7 wins and 1 loss. 1 more win each will see them safely through (LorrieJen might already be safe) and both will probably be focusing on trying to finish in top spot. Both have tough run-ins, so the battle to win the group will be hard! LorrieJen's budget is decent at 122m, but they have an empty ERS tank and tough matches against Chris (strong player and fighting hard to survive group 14) and Rainer-Zufall70 (last year's winner). Revolux has a better budget (125m) and 11 points of ERS, which I'd say makes them favourite to top the group, but they must face FUTCHIVAI (still in contention in group 14 and with 16 points of ERS) and Chris. I'd say these two have some of the hardest remaining fixtures of anyone in the Cup!
That means Alan Partridge (third with 5 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses) could steal the group still, as his run-in is much nicer (GlennL, who is on 3 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, and Sir Jhary, who is on 1 win and 7 losses). They'll feel good about their chances of making it through the group, though Villiers2006 (fourth on 5 wins and 3 losses) will hope they slip up, or that they can just catch Revolux. Their next match against Ferdel (second in a close group 14) is do or die for them probably. Scooperman is also still in with a slim shout, though a hard run-in and the match-ups above will probably mean they finish just short.
GROUP 14:
Group 14 has been the feature group of the topic. As things stand, no one is guaranteed safety yet, with even 7th placed Rainer-Zufall70 having a chance to qualify (albeit needing a LOT of other results to go their way). GlennL (6th with 3 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses) is also mathematically in it, but has slim chances due to their gap to third and a tricky two matches left.
I head the group with 6 wins and 2 losses and a reasonable points total means 1 more win should be enough to qualify. With 5 points of ERS and a 122m budget, I'm in a good spot and will be crossing my fingers I can top the group and avoid the wildcard rounds. Ferdel sits in second with 5 wins and 3 losses (same as Chris and Maverick), but does have a higher points total, meaning they still have a decent shot at winning the group. Their budget is lower (116m), but they do have 4 points of ERS to help. Their run in against Villiers2006 and Scooperman is tough, but easier than what some of their rivals have ahead. Chris sits third with the joint highest budget in the group (125m), but probably wishes they'd not used so much ERS in round 9, given the really hard remaining matches they have against LorrieJen and Revolux (top 2 in group 13). With a lot of pressure likely coming from behind, failing to win even 1 of those matches could prove terminal. The main reason for this is Maverick in fourth. Two losses in a row has seen them slip from top spot, but a 125m budget, 15 points of ERS, and a decent last 2 matches means they should finish very strongly. Their low points total means their chances of topping the group are low, but I think they'll qualify. FUTCHIVAI is still in the running and has 16 points of ERS and a 121m budget to use. Revolux in round 10 is a must-win and they'll be relying on mistakes elsewhere to get through, but they should end up very close!
GROUP 15:
Malcdal leads group 15, with 8 wins from 8 so far. They've already qualified and 1 more win will see them win the group. Despite an empty ERS tank, I think they'll find a result in one of their matches to take the group. Cavallino Rampante has had a really strong season overall and sits second in this group with 6 wins and 2 losses. Their high points total means they should qualify safely, unless they have two AWFUL races. Mark Felts is third currently with 5 wins and 3 losses, just ahead of Matt Burrows, David Craig and BigPack (all 4 wins and 4 losses). Metamorph71 is on 3 wins and 5 losses, so has a chance of qualifying, but it is very slim, given their points total and all the people ahead who'd need to slip up. Mark Felts is slightly low on budget (108m) but does have 5 points of ERS. Their next match against Hubcap00 is the big one for them, as their points total would make them vulnerable if they lose. David Craig's inactivity in round 9 could end up hurting them, and a match-up in the next round with 777 (5 wins, 3 losses) will be crucial to stay in contention. Matt Burrows also has to face 777 (in the last round), but a win in round 10 would keep the pressure on, especially as they have a strong points total. BigPack will be relying on a win against Flavio to stay in the fight. If they can win that, they'd have a decent chance of squeezing through the group!
GROUP 16:
Phew, onto the final group! Superdigger leads with 7 wins and 1 draw, with Allrace in second (6 wins, 2 losses), 777 third (5 wins and 3 losses - great to see them back and competing), then Energie and Flavio chasing with 4 wins and 4 losses. Hubcap00 on 3 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses could qualify and should finish strongly due to a huge 128m budget and 11 points of ERS, but I think they'll just fall short. 1 win for superdigger would take the group, but even that is a tough ask with their run-in (malcdal in the last round). That said, they can't finish worse than third, so are safe in that respect.
Allrace's 3 wins in a row has put them in good shape, but they'd need 2 wins to have a chance of winning the group. They have a favourable run-in, so should qualify and it'll be close for first place! I think that'll be the top two, with the others then fighting for the final spot. 777 has a 127m budget and a tricky run-in against two guys still fighting in group 15 (David Craig and Matt Burrows). They're in the strongest position though, with Energie or Flavio needing 2 wins from 2 to have a reasonable chance. Energie's matches are against 1st and 2nd in group 15, so they'll need a very impressive set of results, while Flavio's match with BigPack in round 10 will be key for them (as they'll fancy their chances in the last round).
I hope that has done all the groups justice! Congrats to all those still in contention and to those not so fortunate this time around, I hope to see you fighting at the top this time next year!
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GaKra Motors
Registered: 02.03.2006
Location: Switzerland
Posts: 925
24.08.2019 13:58:53
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@CarlisleFrost Phew, glad you saved these offline, or this would have been big bummer... I saw before you wrote them but didn't have time to read, and when I wanted to do it, I didn't manage to get on the page and suddenly your post was gone. So was mine in German forum, but that one was not important.
Anyway, it would have been a shame if you had to rewrite this, and a pity if you decided not to do it. I'm looking forward to preview of last four groups and to race next weekend. It's going to be interesting for sure.
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CarlisleFrost
Registered: 19.03.2009
Location: USA
Posts: 132
24.08.2019 11:55:40
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Re-post of rounds 9-12. Thankfully I'd saved these offline!
GROUP 9:
Into the second half and I'd say we have a surprise group leader in group 9! RockinFX, whose budget is just 102m and has no ERS leads with 7 wins and 1 loss. They are guaranteed to qualify and 1 more win would secure top spot in the group. They'll want to win their next match against Midge (0 wins, 8 losses), as their final round against Futchi will be hard! Behind them, it is a SIX way fight for the final two spots. AstonMartin and agentP occupy second and third currently (both on 5 wins and 3 losses), with ralf (often strong in the Cup), Kuhnase, Anne Craig, and Ippofast all on 4 wins and 4 losses. AstonMartin has the advantage of a 126m budget (albeit with empty ERS), but a next match against Katzevonswish will be tough, a win being really important for both at this late stage. They'll be favourite to win in their final match against Midge and a win there probably would be enough to qualify, even if they lose in round 10. I think agentP will have a harder time staying in the top 3, due to their low budget (106m) and no ERS to use, combined with a really tricky run-in against Futchi and Peter Daniel. They'll need to win at least one of those to be in the running.
Looking at the chasing pack, Anne Craig has the most to do, with a low budget (102m), two tough matches and questions on activity (didn't update their team last round). Ippofast has a higher budget (123m) but they haven't updated their team in at least a few rounds. Kuhnase's 113m budget could make life challenging for them, as will remaining matches against two people still competing to get through in group 10, so I think the strongest chaser will be ralf. They'll be favourite to win in round 10 against Lederfisch (1 win, 7 losses), with their survival likely to come down to their final match against HamrHedZ (5 wins, 3 losses), who also could be desperate to win to survive.
GROUP 10:
Those who read the other posts here will have probably seen Alan_T_Riley's comment about their group being tough, and looking at it now, I see just what they mean! 7 people still in with a chance of qualifying, only 2 eliminated for sure and a lot of big names fighting for their Cup lives. Current group leader, KatzevonSwish (6 wins, 2 losses) needs one more win to qualify and will feel pretty good about it. They have a tough one against AstonMartin next, but will like their chances in the final round against Schankbier (1 win, 7 losses). With a budget of 128m, they'd be a dangerous foe in the knockouts, though I wasn't impressed by their copy-ERS earlier against Lederfisch when they had a huge budget advantage. Behind them, 2 straight losses for rkhalili have seen them slip from first place into the battle for survival. With a 116m budget and empty ERS, they won't feel too comfortable, but their run-in isn't too bad and I think they'll either get through or be very, very close in the end. Like rkhalili, jules_ht, Peter Daniel and HamrHedz are all on 5 wins and 3 losses, while Futchi and Alan_T_Riley are on 4 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses. The latter two have to aim to win their remaining matches and hope those ahead slip up. Tough, given how many are in contention! Looking through them; jules is empty on ERS, which could hurt, but they have a huge budget of 126m and a run-in against Ippofast and Anne Craig, both of whom look inactive (they could return though!). Peter Daniel is way behind on total points, so needs those ahead to lose at least once. With 20 points of ERS, they'll put a lot of pressure on the others. HamrHedz is even lower on total points, but does have 7 points of ERS. Their run in is harder though, and I feel they might fall just short. Futchi and Alan_T_Riley both have solid budgets but are low on ERS. Both have good shots at winning their final matches, but like with HamrHedz, it might be too little, too late, with losses earlier on likely to have done too much damage. However this group ends, there'll be some big casualties!
GROUP 11:
We could have three people guaranteed qualification from group 11 by the end of round 10, as we have three people clear at the top. Paperboy, Giacomo and Constable all are on 6 wins and 2 losses, with defcon1racing and C Heath 2 wins behind and hoping for some big slip ups. C Heath's low points total means they'd need to win both of their remaining matches (tough, as their last one is against an undefeated opponent), someone ahead would need to lose both remaining matches, AND they'd need a decent shift in total points. Tough ask to put it lightly. defcon1racing has two winnable matches left and could put some pressure on.
Looking at the top three, Paperboy sits first for now with a decent total points advantage. They'll be favourite to win their round 10 match, but round 11 will be tough against TekMonstre (5 wins, 3 losses) and those behind will be waiting to pounce! I have been.... irked by some of Giacomo's tactics in previous Cup years, but have been impressed by them this year. Their run-in is challenging (andyFX and svnfrnzn, both of whom have 4 wins so far), but with a good budget (122m) and 6 points of ERS, I'd tip them to end with 2 wins and think they're favourite to win the group. Constable sits in third, with a lower budget of 112m, but they just need to find 1 more win to survive. Two tough matches left, but their fate is in their own hands!
GROUP 12:
Group 12 is led by voimanen, who's on a perfect 8 wins so far. They're guaranteed qualification and 1 more win would seal top spot. Their run-in is reasonable and they should feel pretty good about their position! Things are tighter behind them, with Superviper in second (6 wins, 2 losses), TekMonstre third (5 wins, 3 losses), svnfrnzn fourth (4 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses) and andyFX (4 wins, 4 losses) also in contention. With a 125m budget and just needing 1 more win to qualify, Superviper is in a great position. I'd be very surprised if they'd not get through, especially given their form in the Cup (they always seem to do well). Both svnfrnzn and andy haven't shown signs of activity in the last few rounds and have hard remaining matches, so I see TekMonstre as most likely to take third place. With a decent budget (118m), higher points total and a reasonable round 10, I think they'll do enough to get through.
Groups 13-16 will come soon and wrap things up!
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CarlisleFrost
Registered: 19.03.2009
Location: USA
Posts: 132
17.08.2019 11:54:42
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Manic week, but the next part is all written up!
GROUP 5:
Imagedoctor leads group 5 with 7 wins and 1 loss. 1 more win would guarantee them top spot, but they have a challenging run-in against L-Master Esq and Keke, who are both performing strongly in group 6. Schumacher sits in second and will be hoping for a slip up from imagedoctor. With a challenging (but slightly easier) run-in, a strong budget and 9 points of ERS to burn, 1st place is by no means decided yet! They'll almost certainly end up as the top two though, with roger alford (currently third), LongbowX and FastSteve fighting for the final spot. Roger alford is a win ahead currently and has a better points total, a slight budget advantage and a reasonable match-up in round 10, so they are in a strong position to get through. FastSteve has two really tough remaining matches, so they'll need a super-strong performance to have a chance of advancing. LongbowX's run-in is nicer, so they'll need to try and win both and hope that roger will stumble somewhere!
GROUP 6:
Group 6 is one of the tightest groups of them all, with 6 teams still having a chance to win the group. Keke leads currently with a record of 6 wins and 2 losses, with basseck second and L-Master Esq third (both 5 wins and 3 losses). Katalyst and king_1905 are just behind (also 5 wins and 3 losses, but with fewer total points), and Hugo still in with a shot on 4 wins and 4 losses. Keke will want to win their next match against FastSteve, as that should guarantee they'll get through, while their final match against imagedoctor will be hard and they won't want to come into that desperate for a win! Keke does have a solid budget and 6 points or ERS, so they're in decent shape. Basseck has a strong budget, the highest points total by far, and a slightly easier run-in, so could well end up as group winner if they can end strongly. L-Master Esq is out of ERS but does have a decent budget for the home stretch. Their final match is reasonable, but their survival might well come down to their next match with imagedoctor (depending how their rivals fare). Katalyst looks dangerous to put it lightly, having a good budget and 13 points of ERS at their disposal, plus an ok final two matches. King_1905 realistically needs 2 wins to qualify and round 10 against Schumacher is huge. Big ask, as despite a 125m budget, they're down on ERS (probably will have to buy a new ERS unit early). Hugo has a reasonable chance to end with 2 wins, but even that may not be enough to get through. Crazy to think that ending with 6 wins and 4 losses may not be enough to get through!
GROUP 7:
Wow, this group has had some strong performances and some strong people out. Hase (always such a strong competitor) is out already, along with Bouch (who has gone deep in the Cup a few times in recent years). Invisibleracer (another strong player) sits in fourth and needs 2 wins from 2 to stand a chance of advancing. With a strong budget, they could get those two wins, but just one win from third placed dmvn04 would knock them out. Dmvn04 has 9 points of ERS and two matches against people with records of 2 wins and 6 losses, so they're in a very strong position to get through. Their lower total points means they're unlikely to fight for the group win, with that battle being between jobber2022497 (currently first) and JUSTIN BIEBER, both of whom are on 7 wins and 1 loss. Amazing from both of them so far. Jobber's monster 130m budget and 14 points of ERS means they'll be favourite (JUSTIN has 117m and 8 points of ERS, which isn't bad), though both of them have matches against Daijhi2 (undefeated so far) to come. Both will come into their other matches hoping for wins, so I think it'll come down to who does better against Daijhi2. I know one thing; no one will want to have to face jobber in the knockouts, as their team is SCARY!
GROUP 8:
Group 8 has had some dominant performances so far. Daijhi2 heads the group with a perfect 8-0-0 record, with am201020 in second with 7 wins and 1 loss. Daijhi2 is through and can focus on trying to win the group, while am201020 would need a big turnaround to be knocked out. Daijhi2's hard run in (against the top two in group 7), combined with am201020's much easier remaining matches (and higher total score) means I'd tip the latter to end up as group winner. I think we could have a second placed person here with a record of 9 wins and 1 loss! The battle for the third and final spot is between Margaret104 (who seems to be strong every year) and carlos reutemann. Both are on records of 5 wins and 3 losses, with Margaret currently ahead thanks to a much higher points total. Both have some tough remaining matches (Margaret has hase in the final round and carlos has invisibleracer and then Bouch!). Margaret will be the favourite to survive, but any little slip up could be huge!
Fingers crossed I'll be able to post groups 9-12 tomorrow!
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CarlisleFrost
Registered: 19.03.2009
Location: USA
Posts: 132
10.08.2019 18:26:11
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Okay, the Cup write-up is under way (a lot to cover, so it has taken a while to review everything!). I'll break it into a few parts, so it's hopefully easier to go through for those who are interested. Each post will cover 4 groups, starting with 1-4 in this one!
GROUP 1:
Group 1 is one of the more settled groups, with Hiensi (one of four people to be undefeated so far) pretty much guaranteed top spot due to their high points total. GaKra is guaranteed qualification as well, but is likely to stay second, meaning they'll probably use the final two rounds to charge their ERS up a little in preparation for the wildcard round.
All the other competitors have a chance of taking the final remaining slot (no one is 100% eliminated yet!), though realistically, it should be between spystocks, David Townsend, Droopy noses, sirapz and oxygen, who are all within one win of eachother. Spystocks has the highest points total, which could be crucial in the end, but has two tough opponents in Ashton and MCM. David Townsend's two opponents (Enzo VR and ropagilax) aren't easy either, though coming into it with 5 points or ERS could prove crucial!
GROUP 2:
Group 2 is much more wide open, with the current leader, ropagilax not even guaranteed qualification yet! With records of 6 wins and 2 losses, ropagilax and Tom Hewer are in the strongest positions, with MCM in third (looking for another strong Cup run), and Heinz Prueller (despite being 3rd on the entire site!), Abelonso and Enzo VR also in contention.
The run-in has some tough matches for pretty much everyone (Tom Hewer vs the undefeated Hiensi, Enzo VR vs David Townsend, Abelonso vs GaKra, MCM vs spystocks...), so it all comes down to who can sneak a win or two from their remaining matches. Like with group 1, there are no matches that look like potentially easy wins, while no one has a significant budget or ERS advantage either.
GROUP 3:
Daijhi leads a competitive group 3 with 7 wins and just 1 loss. One win for them in the run in will guarantee them top spot and probably a strong seeding too for the knockouts. 2 straight losses for Maxwell and 900BHP-ers have probably killed their hopes of winning the group, but they sit second and third coming into the home stretch, with narrow leads over a chasing pack of Stofflbxl, Izlude and david mcavoy.
Izlude is in a strong position to win their final 2 rounds (huge 129m budget), though it looks like they've had an oversight on their ERS, as it is full but with only 1 round to be used. That said, those 2 wins might not even be enough, as their total points tally is lower than those ahead. Stofflbxl has a tough run in (roi1975 and Margie Bell, who are both 7 on 7 wins and 1 loss and fighting at the top of group 4), while david mcavoy's points total probably will hurt them in the end, despite a more kind run-in. With strong budgets and decent match-ups remaining, I'd expect Maxwell and 900BHP-ers to get through and if they do, they'd make tough opponents for whoever they get in the wildcard rounds.
GROUP 4:
As mentioned in group 3, it is Margie Bell and roi1975 fighting to win group 4, both with 7 wins and just 1 loss. Amazing from both competitors so far. Margie Bell sits first due to a higher points total, but roi1975's higher budget and ERS could help overturn that. Margie has the easier round 10, but roi has the easier round 11 and I expect this to go down to the wire.
The battle for the final qualfication spot is TIGHT in this group. Dave Ardon occupies that spot now (4 wins, 4 losses), ahead of Kitto (also 4 and 4 but with fewer points), then Alpha908, Ferrari SpA and Nicolaas on Wheels all one win behind, but with much higher points totals. Dave Ardon's run in is HARD (Maxwell, then Izlude) but one win from those MIGHT be enough. Getting just one win will be hard, but they have a good budget and some ERS at their disposal. Kitto also is likely to need to win both and their low budget and a hard run-in mean they're up against it too.
Alpha908 has Bleirohr (only 1 win and a lower budget) in round 10 and a win there puts them right in contention, while their final match isn't impossible either. Ferrari SpA has 900BHP-ers next and that will be a big ask (a loss there and they'll probably be out), while Nicolaas's final match is against Daijhi, which makes life very hard for them. I THINK it'll be down to Dave and Alpha908 for the final spot, but with Belgium the next race, surprises are very possible!
Groups 5-8 will come soon!
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GaKra Motors
Registered: 02.03.2006
Location: Switzerland
Posts: 925
06.08.2019 23:01:07
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@CarlisleFrost Thank you for another detailed and interesting recap of your group. And wow, summary of all groups and looking ahead post still to come? You can be sure I will enjoy reading them.
@everybody There's no denying that everybody involved in motor sports deserves a summer break, but for us PFRL players it's the second hardest time of the year. So everybody who can't wait for the season to go on and to put their strategic thoughts to the test is invited to solve this riddle. Question is simple: What will I do ERS-wise in the next Cup round after summer break? Will I use ERS, and if so, will I recharge or discharge it, and for how many points? And why? I have no clue yet what my team will look like components-wise, but the way situation in group 1 is, my ERS strategy is set in stone already, and there is a logical explanation for it. Can you find it out?
Hint: The only realistic way for me to win group 1 is to win the last two duels of group stage while Hiensi would have to lose both their duels. In every other case I will end up being second in the group and therefore safe to advance to the knockout stage.
P.S.: CarlisleFrost's summary to come might bring additional hints but keep in mind they might actually solve the riddle themselves. 
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CarlisleFrost
Registered: 19.03.2009
Location: USA
Posts: 132
06.08.2019 01:26:13
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Thanks @GaKra. It's good to be a race winner again, as I'd not won one since 2016 (I can't believe it was so long ago!). I didn't expect it either, so it was a big surprise when I logged in and saw it!
@Alan_T_Riley, your group is definitely close! KatzevonSwish probably is safely through (1 win from their final 2 matches pretty much guarantees it), though there are then 6 in your group still fighting for the final 2 spots. I don't think your match vs KatzevonSwish was a fight for survival, but I get your point of how important it was. You have a decent final two rounds, and winning both PROBABLY would be enough to get through. As we're now in the summer break for F1, I will do a post later in the week summarising every Cup group, so will go into more detail there!
For now though, a round-up on group 14 and some higher scoring match-ups than in Germany...
- Ferdel v Magne was a close contest between two strong competitors. Ferdel's use of their ERS advantage and an incredible (or lucky, depending how they see it!) fastest lap prediction helping them to a 3 point win. If they'd got the fastest lap wrong, it would have been Magne celebrating a win. As I thought, the win sent Ferdel into second and means they'll be in control of their own destiny in terms of surviving the group. Sadly, it means an end to Magne's chances, despite their team being 22nd in the overall rankings. I'm sure they'll be an even stronger force in the Cup in 2020.
- Rainer-Zufall70 charged their ERS during their bye round, but results elsewhere mean their chances of advancing are now very, very thin, relying on winning both of their remaining matches and a lot of other results going their way. Shame to see the reigning champion in that position, but it just underlines how tough the group has been so far.
- Chris v GlennL saw a dominant win for Chris, with GlennL unable to repeat their heroics from the last round against Maverick. A huge score (helped by OT mode on ERS) for them, though Chris probably wishes he'd saved more of it for the next round, as a very strong opponent awaits. Hindsight is a wonderful thing though. For now, they can enjoy sitting in the top 3.
- Maverick v myself was high-scoring but not as close as some (I thought it'd be decided by a very small margin) may have expected. My race-winning score definitely helped, though Maverick's lack of ERS use was most surprising. That said, even if they did use it, the result would have been the same, so saving it does put them in a good position to end with two wins, which should be enough to get through. It just means they have a big task to try and win the group.
- In the final match, FUTCHIVAI beat Sir Jhary to stay in the chase for survival. They need 2 wins from the final 2 rounds to stand a chance of qualifying (and that might not even be enough), and their next round will be TOUGH, but they've kept themselves in the battle, which was all they could do. Really looking forward to seeing how they do in round 10.
I'll do the looking ahead post later too, as there are more matches to cover for it. It's going to be a tight contest to qualify and to win the group though. Looking at the remaining matches, it's probably myself or Ferdel that's likely to win the group (Maverick's low points total will hurt him and Chris has the hardest run-in by far), but as we saw in Germany, anything can happen, and Spa next could well throw up more surprises/upsets!
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GaKra Motors
Registered: 02.03.2006
Location: Switzerland
Posts: 925
04.08.2019 20:24:09
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Congrats, Frosti... winning the race sure helps winning the Cup duel.
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GaKra Motors
Registered: 02.03.2006
Location: Switzerland
Posts: 925
03.08.2019 18:23:48
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Very tight race in your group indeed, Alan... and a top notch duel between you and Kat that can go either way. Winning this one would be a big step towards the knockout stage, where I feel you both belong.
I found something interesting in group 2, too... Heinz Prueller is 6th in the group only with team Caesar that we can find on 7th place in overall ranking. There is still a chance for them to advance, but it takes quite some bad luck to get into such a tight spot despite doing so well.
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