CarlisleFrost
Registered: 19.03.2009
Location: USA
Posts: 132
14.04.2019 15:03:09
|
PRFL Cup 2019
|
Just checked up on the groups for the Cup this year and I think I had a mini heart attack. Group 14 definitely can be described as the GROUP OF DEATH!
Ferdel, Rainer-Zufall70, Chris, FUTCHIVAI, Maverick and myself in it, along with Magne (Rookie champion from last year), Sir Jhary on a fine looking budget and GlennL (who's had a solid start to the year). With only 3 places to go through, I'm preparing for carnage!
|
Alan_T_Riley
Registered: 14.03.2015
Location: Denmark
Posts: 63
03.08.2019 01:15:58
|
pfrl cup races; what else
|
Group 10 is a hot one too. We have seven people separated by one and half spots or less. I kid you not.
I face Kat for survival on Sunday.
I raise you by thirteen Doc.
|
GaKra Motors
Registered: 02.03.2006
Location: Switzerland
Posts: 925
29.07.2019 17:46:48
|
|
@CarlisleFrost You bet, that race was stark-ravingly bonkers. Very entertaining to watch from a neutral position, though playing PFRL, my position was not so neutral. 
No wonder results were crazy here, too... just when I thought tension would be out in this group after yesterdays race, such insane things happen... like you taking over the lead after losing to an inactive player. Funny situation, though. Last three rounds in your group will be thrilling.
Thank you for mentioning me in your overview! After quali I also thought Hiensi might lose while I should win without too many problems. In the end Hiensi won again and I had to be glad I won my duel despite having Leclerc and Abiteboul in my team... thanks to my opponent's disadvantage of having chosen the Mercedes factory engine. 
|
CarlisleFrost
Registered: 19.03.2009
Location: USA
Posts: 132
29.07.2019 00:05:47
|
|
Wow, I'm sure a lot of people on the site wish they could have a redo on this weekend, as that race was insane!
Shocks throughout the group, with the top three coming into the round ALL losing.
- Maverick started in first but was had a surprise loss to GlennL thanks to Leclerc's early retirement and Toro Rosso's amazing race.
- I managed to lose to Sir Jhary's team that hasn't changed in ages, which was an absolute shocker. Scoring more points than Maverick, I do move top of the group, though that feels like a small consolation at the moment.
- Chris got thrashed by Ferdel. Pretty much everything that could have gone wrong for Chris did in that race!
- In the final match, Rainer beat Magne in the most competitive match-up of the round, with both scoring well. Magne is still in things mathematically, though they face a huge challenge now.
Overall, those results meant the group closed up massively, with the top 4 separated by 1 win and no one overly safe in terms of advancing through the group. All to play for now!
Looking ahead to the coming round (glad it is next weekend, as I want to forget this week as soon as possible!)...
- Ferdel faces Magne in a big one for both. A loss and Magne is out, while a win for Ferdel would put them second in the group (probably). Two strong budgets and players for this one!
- Rainer has a bye round to charge up their ERS for the final two rounds. I'd expect them to have a full tank for their last 2 matches, which will be must-wins. Even 2 wins from the final 2 might not be enough.
- Chris faces a revitalised GlennL, whose win in the last round kept them in the fight. Tough run-ins for both, so this one's huge (as everything basically is!).
- FUTCHIVAI has Sir Jhary next up. Should get a win but that's what I thought this weekend and it didn't happen! With a win, they're right back in the picture.
- Then it's the big one. Myself v Maverick. Slight budget advantage for him, slight ERS advantage for me (depending on engine choice), with the winner pretty likely to be through the group and able to focus on trying to finish first. We've had some good battles in other competitions (CRL a few years back feels like yesterday still), though I think this is our first match-up in the Cup. Looking forward to it!
GaKra, since you check these too, good win for you that round. I thought Hiensi might slip up and give you some hope of winning group 1. As you said, with his higher total score, he's looking remarkably strong now. Could be the #1 seed for the knockouts, though there's still plenty to go before then!
Bring on Hungary!
|
FUTCHIVAI
Registered: 16.03.2012
Location: Italy
Posts: 6
19.07.2019 19:23:29
|
|
@CarlisleFrost I just love reading your reviews and commentary. it is a great read. Thanks. 
|
GaKra Motors
Registered: 02.03.2006
Location: Switzerland
Posts: 925
16.07.2019 23:12:56
|
|
@CarlisleFrost Yes, the way it looks in my group, in order to win it I will have to win all my remaining duels and Hiensi will have to lose twice, which doesn't seem to be very likely to happen. On the other hand it looks pretty good for me to advance as 2nd or 3rd. The scenario where Hiensi wins all his duels with me ending up second losing only once is less realistic than it looks, though. The way it is now, Hiensi is 1.9 victories in front of me, so to say. If this should still be the case before the last round and I could only end up either 2nd or 3rd, you shouldn't be surprized if I didn't try to win the last duel at all costs but rather prepared my team for the knockout stage, recharging ERS, using Option and whatnot. I sure won't lose on purpose, but I'm relieved to see that my opponent is ranked last in group 2 at the moment, so accidentally letting them win probably wouldn't tamper with important results in group 2.
In case I should get someone from your group as an opponent in knockout stage and I could chose when, I would have said in the first knockout round, as I expected a very tight race in your group and that whoever will make it through will probably do it without any ERS left. The way it looks now it might be less tight than I thought if top 3 will all win their next round. So now I would chose to only meet with someone from your group in the final, because that would mean I made it there, too.
|
CarlisleFrost
Registered: 19.03.2009
Location: USA
Posts: 132
16.07.2019 00:30:19
|
|
@GaKra, glad you enjoy reading. The group is tough enough already, so you can stay in group 1! :P
Hiensi is on fire, so that could be a crazy group where you lose only once, but don't win the group!
@Chris, no worries on that. Teams and predictions etc were different, while neither was defenseless ERS-wise anyway! It was a close battle between you and Magne. Your qualification prediction probably made it slightly less stressful!
It was nice to have a bye round and to have a round where I didn't have to worry about anything except trying to make sure I got the +5m budget increase and a decent ERS recharge. The latest round of matches started to spread the group out and has left a fair few people needing miracles to get through.
Chris vs Magne saw two strong scores. Chris's win moved him to third for now, with 10 points of ERS still left for the coming rounds. Magne went for it, buying a new ERS unit, but the budget deficit and a +5 qualifying prediction for Chris couldn't be overcome.
FUTCHIVAI vs Rainer wasn't the war I expected, largely due to the Ferrari Customer engine in Rainer's team scoring almost nothing. A different engine and that could have been CLOSE. With only three rounds left for Rainer (due to a bye round in one of them), things are looking bleak for the reigning champion. I expect them to fight until the end though and wouldn't be surprised if they win those three match-ups.
Maverick v Ferdel, amazingly saw both recharging. A big discharge for Ferdel COULD have won it, though I get why he charged, given the challenging rounds they have coming up (more on that later). It puts Maverick back to the top of the table for now, and my match with him now looks like it will be extra-important. Site owner and overall legend vs the Cup expert.
Glenn vs Sir Jhary went as expected. Comfortable win for Glenn, who just about stays in contention (though they'll need to win all their remaining matches to have a good chance).
Looking ahead to round 8, we could well see more people join Sir Jhary as no longer in contention to qualify after the round...
- Magne and Rainer's chances both hang by a thread. Even if not mathematically eliminated, the loser's chances of getting through the group would be almost zero, so it is an absolute must-win for both.
- Chris v Ferdel is 3rd v 4th. The winner will be third, while if Chris wins, there'll be a pretty big gap between the top 3 and the chasing pack. Chris has a big budget advantage but Ferdel has more ERS, so this one will be interesting!
- FUTCHIVAI stayed in touch with their win in the last round and they have a bye round this time to really charge up the ERS tank. They'll have some catching up to do in the remaining rounds!
- Maverick v Glenn is important on both sides. A win for Maverick and they'd be very likely to be safely through (I think 6 wins will be enough to qualify), while a loss for Glenn realistically means they'll be out of contention. Glenn scored well last round, so this is by no means a simple one for the group leader!
- I then have Sir Jhary in the final match of the round. Current form (5 straight wins v 6 straight losses) certainly makes me a favourite, but shocks can happen, so I'll be picking my team very carefully! If I do win, I should be good to qualify!
I wish the round was this coming weekend!
|
Chris
Registered: 04.02.2014
Location: Germany
Posts: 686
13.07.2019 14:54:12
|
|
@frost: i hope you noticed, that magne nearly copied me, not the other way 
|
GaKra Motors
Registered: 02.03.2006
Location: Switzerland
Posts: 925
07.07.2019 18:53:10
|
|
@CarlisleFrost It should be made a rule that there has to be a hammer group in Cup and that you have to be assigned to it, so we won't have to wait for the knockout stage until finally something happens in forum. 
Thank you for the great previews and recaps... they almost make me want to be a part of that horror group. Almost.
|
CarlisleFrost
Registered: 19.03.2009
Location: USA
Posts: 132
06.07.2019 16:47:52
|
|
Thanks Chris. Some important and potentially important results in the last round.
I thought Rainer would use a lot of ERS against me, so expected to lose that one (hence why I was just trying to charge ERS for future rounds). I guess he's playing the long game and saving his ERS for the match-ups against his closer rivals for that third place spot. I have a bye round up next to charge more ERS, which should put me in a strong position for the last few rounds. Feeling good about getting through, but the group win is important and I'm chasing that hopefully.
Your win against Maverick opened up the battle for top spot and kept you nicely in the race to get through. Maverick probably felt he was up against it, so his ERS charge may well be a smart move. As you only used 5 points, you have plenty for the upcoming rounds against some tough opponents.
Ferdel had a narrow and probably quite nervy win over Sir Jhary. Important though, as it puts him third for now. A loss, given their tough schedule (Maverick, you, then Magne) would have left them with little room for losses/mistakes.
FUTCHIVAI vs Magne was always going to be pivotal too. Had they gone with a McLaren chassis and used a tiny bit more ERS, the result would have changed. Credit to Magne for continually picking strong teams. Both are still in with a chance to get through, but either will need a very strong run-in.
Looking to round 7, pretty much every match is important.
- For you vs Magne, the loser will be left adrift of third and would probably need to win every match after to still have a chance. The winner COULD go up to third, depending what happens in the match below.
- FUTCHIVAI vs Rainer feels like a must-win match to stay in contention, as both are a bit behind 3rd coming into it. Both have big ERS balances and I expect a war between them to get the win.
- Ferdel v Maverick is another that could be great. Maverick will want to get back to winning ways. A loss for him would be a big dent to his chances of taking the group, while Ferdel will be keen to keep hold of third place.
- Glenn has a must-win match against Sir Jhary. A loss there and their chances of advancing would become almost zero.
|
Chris
Registered: 04.02.2014
Location: Germany
Posts: 686
05.07.2019 12:03:12
|
|
like everytime a nice recap and preview frost!
for me an unclear situation. 2 defeats, but wins just against mav and frost. dont know
|
|
